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Five reasons why the health-care "bounce" is no bounce, it's a backlash

The ever-prescient Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight sees a bit more than the typical statistical wobbles behind the bounce in Obama's poll numbers on health-care.

I'm not yet prepared to render a prediction on this subject, although for a variety of reasons -- basically, the GOP having used up a lot of its firepower coupled with Obama having underachieved his overall approval ratings on health care reform -- I think the bounce (if there is one) is more likely to have "oomph" than it usually does.

(Emphasis is mine.)

I think it goes a little deeper than this, and I think this bounce is real, and I think it bodes very well for the coming weeks and months. Here's why....